A LITERARY CLUB FOR A NEW MILLENNIUM
By
Roger E. Ball
Delivered to
The 125th Anniversary Dinner of
The Chicago Literary Club
January 11, 1999
Copyright 1999 Roger E. Ball
The Chicago Literary Club has asked me to predict what the future may hold for the club. To do so one must ask first how the world itself will change. But to make such a prediction is an invitation to make a fool of oneself. Far brighter and better informed people than myself have made predictions about the future that have later turned out to be ludicrous. Here are a few examples from a vast collection:
In 1865 the Boston Post, in an editorial, had this to say:
"Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over
wires and if it were possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical
value."
In 1895 Lord Kelvin, who played a major role in the development of
thermodynamics and the electromagnetic theory of light said: "Heavier than
air flying machines are impossible."
In 1908 Ernest Rutherford who won a Nobel prize for founding the science of
radioactivity had this to say: "The idea of extracting energy from the
nucleus of the atom is pure moonshine."
In 1957 Lee DeForest who invented the three-element vacuum tube and the
self-regenerating circuit, thus making radio broadcasting possible, said this:
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific
advances."
An interesting feature of these
predictions is that they all refer to something that will not or cannot happen.
The predictors fell into a logical trap. A development is only possible or
impossible within the context of existing knowledge and the direction in which
knowledge will develop is notoriously difficult to predict.
In the sections that follow I will discuss two scientific developments that are
already well advanced, concentrating not so much on the technology itself but
on how it will affect society. The effects are likely to be profound. I hope to
demonstrate later that our club will need to consider how to react.
Neuroscience is now the hot area in scientific development. The Society for
Neuroscience was founded in 1970 with 1100 members. It now totals over 26,000.
Its latest convention in
Neuroscience is on the threshold of a theory whose impact will be as powerful
and even more disturbing than Darwinism. Long-established concepts of the mind,
the soul, and free will are being reexamined from a strictly scientific
viewpoint. Much of philosophy, psychology, and psychoanalysis will need to be
rewritten, and the impact on religion may be profound. This knowledge is now
confined to a small group of researchers working at locations like the
Laboratory of Neurophysiology at
Since long before Aristotle people have speculated about the brain but without
any real data. Now for the first time we are able to observe the brain in
operation. This has come about through the development of devices such as
positive emission tomography, (PET Scans), functional magnetic resonance
imaging (fMRS), and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS).
These devices were originally developed for medical diagnosis. Now, with the
help of computers, they permit us to measure blood flow and biochemical changes
in the brain as it deals with different problems, and in different states such
wakefulness, sleep, and dreaming. For the first time, knowledge on how the
brain works is based on solid scientific evidence rather than speculation.
The first casualty of this new knowledge is the venerable mind/brain problem, a
persistent puzzle of philosophy for hundreds of years. This is the belief that
the mind is something distinct from its mechanism --- a ghostly
"self" somewhere inside the brain that interprets and directs its
operation. Well, there is no such ghost. What we call the mind is simply the
brain in operation. This shoots down dualism so we can scrap Descartes except
for his mathematics. We can also scrap parts of Kant, Hume, and Locke. Along with
them will go much of the mystical speculation about something that has been
called "spirit"
Most disturbing of all is the problem of the soul. All of Judeo-Christian
theology is based on the concept of an immortal soul, inhabiting the body but
distinct from it, and equipped with free will and the knowledge of good and
evil. If all of our thoughts, memories, and emotions are the result of
electro-chemical patterns playing out on the neurons of our brains, as seems to
be the case, where then is the soul? Can theology be rewritten without the soul
but saving the ethical messages? Will anyone dare to do it?
Another casualty of the new neuroscience is strict determinism. It now appears
that the way our brains operate is strongly influenced by the chemical balance
between two classes of neurotransmitters --- the amine group and the choline
group. This balance is mediated in part by random events taking place in the
brain stem. There is also the possibility that, at its deepest level, the brain
is a quantum device, subject to quantum randomness. If brain processes are
largely random and unpredictable free will is still possible, but in an
attenuated form. The loss of complete control may be an advantage since it can
be the source of creativity and leaps of intuition. Random processes are an
inexhaustible source of new information in the form of options and alternatives
How far are you willing to go with these ideas? You had better think hard
because the evidence is very persuasive. It is disturbing because the issue
this time around is not the evolution of our species but the nature of our own
precious selves.
Very dear to our hearts is the idea of a self who exercises self-control,
postpones gratification, curbs sexual appetite, stops short of aggression and
criminal behavior, can lift itself by study, practice, perseverance and refusal
to give up. Does the new brain science mean that we must give up these values
along with the concept of an independent self? I think not, but the subject
requires careful thought.
.
As this knowledge becomes available to the general public it seems certain to
exacerbate the culture wars that are disturbing our social and political life.
This struggle pits those of a tolerant and liberal persuasion against a sizable
group that would like to reinstate a moral and political orthodoxy that they
feel has been lost. Many of the latter group are religious fundamentalists who
still refuse to accept evolution. Their reaction to the ideas of the
neuro-scientists are likely to be extreme. However, these are good people,
their concerns are genuine and deeply felt. They should be treated with
sympathy and understanding.
I believe that these problems will create a good deal of discord but in the end
will resolve themselves. After all, we have been down this road before. The
Copernican revolution was startling and disturbing but it revealed a sky far
more mysterious, interesting, and challenging than the tight little cosmos of
Ptolemy.
What has been called distributed intelligence is the second area of science
that may have a profound impact on society. Until recently intelligence, or the
ability to study information and reach rational conclusions, has been confined
exclusively to humans and the higher animals. Now we have taught the machines
to think, and do they ever do it! Washing machines sense the nature of the load
and decide how to adjust the temperature and wash cycle. Thermostats can sense
when a person enters a room and adjust the heating or cooling to that person's
known habits and preferences. The computer at Amazon.com analyzes my prior
purchases and decides what books or music would interest me. The computer that
I have used to type these words makes many decisions without input from me,
some of them against my wishes.
It is in the areas of work and education that distributed intelligence
threatens (or promises) to change society, and it is here that we encounter a
good deal of misinformation and misunderstanding.
We constantly hear that today's jobs require a higher level of education and
skill than in the past. This is only partially true. Highly skilled workers are
needed in fields such as computer programming, systems analysis, biotechnology
and high-tech manufacturing. These jobs get most of the attention, but they are
a small proportion of the total. Most people work at jobs like retail sales
clerk, super-market checkout clerk, insurance claim reviewer, and garage
attendant. All of these jobs require less skill and less education than in the
past. Sales people no longer need know how to make change. Insurance adjusters
can keyboard the data into their terminal and get an initial reading without
any thought or judgment on their part. Garage mechanics can use a diagnostic
machine that eliminates the need for a thorough understanding of engine
performance. In each case the machine makes a decision that is almost always
more reliable than that of the worker. And in each instance, the job of the
worker has been downgraded and its value reduced, along with the worker's
bargaining power.
Not so long ago the job of master mechanic in a metal fabricating plant was a
well paid and highly respected one. The mechanic needed a thorough
understanding of the complex geometry of gear teeth and screw threads, and how
to produce them with lathes and milling machines, using a variety of steels and
other metals. Now all this knowledge is contained in the digitally controlled
machine tools. The job of master mechanic has been designed out of existence.
The machines have taken over.
This process is inexorable and will affect jobs at higher and higher levels.
So-called expert systems are being put in place to enable nurses to make
diagnostic decisions formerly made by doctors. It is not enough to view this as
a welcome reduction in the doctor's already heavy workload. What is does is reduce
the skill requirement of the doctor's job. Part of his value to society has
been designed away and turned over to the machine. This cannot fail to affect
his compensation.
Two processes are at work. On the one hand there is the complete elimination of
some jobs that can be done better by machines, such as the case of the master
mechanic. On the other hand there is the downgrading of many jobs as the skill
content is reduced. The two processes together will increase the already
frightening polarity of incomes in our society. In the high-tech industries
supply-and-demand forces will keep incomes high. But in a larger part of
society workers prospects for a living wage are declining . The distinction
between the haves and the have-nots will continue to increase.
What we see here is the breakdown of a system that in the past has served
capitalist society very well. Economic growth produced jobs, the jobs required
skills that gave the worker bargaining power, and the worker's income allowed
him to purchase the products of industry. Now we have economic growth, it is
producing jobs, but many of the jobs do not pay a living wage. Our leaders face
this very serious problem with denial and the pursuit of trivial distractions.
Creative imagination has never been so urgently needed.
Creativity is born out of imagination, which is difficult to define but not
that difficult to display. Bear with me while I try to show an example of the
imagination at work.
They have come to the shore, bringing the sheep down from the
high summer pastures on the foothills of
The bard stands and strikes his lyre three times --- the classic Pythagorean
cadence. He begins to speak. He is speaking in rhymed hexameters, his voice
rising and falling, balanced by the caesura in the middle of each line. By his
side, his assistant taps a small drum to emphasize the rhythm. The effect is
hypnotic. Imagination carries the men's minds away to another shore, far
distant in time and space.
On this shore black ships are drawn up on the beach, their masts and rigging
securely lashed down. Fires burn along the beach, and there are guards and a
few dogs patrolling the line of ships. A river runs into the sea on the Eastern
boundary. Beyond the ships there is a cluster of tents. Beyond these, the plain
stretches away to the North where there is a fortified city, enclosed by high
walls. At intervals on these walls there are towers where watchmen search for
intruders on the plain.
In a large tent just above the line of ships a meeting is taking place. The
meeting has been called by Achilles, but it is Agamemnon, king of men, who is
speaking. He is a commanding presence, impressively tall and with flashing
eyes. He has organized these men, calling them from their scattered cities, and
forming them into an army to rescue his brother's wife and avenge an
unforgivable insult. He has even sacrificed his own daughter to appease the
gods and gain favorable winds. Now he explains that the gods require him to
give up the young woman that was allotted to him as his prize. In return, he
will seize Briseis, the woman given as a prize to Achilles.
God-like Achilles leaps to his feet, raging. "Drunkard! With the face of a
dog and the heart of a deer. ." he screams. His hand is on his sword. The
other men stir and their hands go to their weapons. These are hot-blooded men,
already hardened in battle. They have sworn fealty to Agamemnon but their
hearts are with Achilles who is one of them and the best of all. Agamemnon has
struck a deadly blow at his pride and honor..
Achilles is truly frightening . He is a man of violence, born and shaped for
battle. Son of Peleus by the sea-goddess Thetis, he was raised by the centaur
Chiron. He has openly and willingly renounced a life of ease in favor of a
short life and a glorious one. He will be sung about by bards and idealized by
generations of boys as the paragon of manly courage and the beau ideal of the
perfect warrior. But he must resist to the absolute limit of his ability the
insult to his honor that has just been proposed. He will burst through the
ranks and kill Agamemnon.
White-armed Athena, urged on by Hera, descends from heaven in a column of
blazing light. She seizes Achilles by the hair and persuades him to stay his
hand. Since she is a goddess he must agree, but the quarrel is not over and
many brave men will die before the will of Zeus is fulfilled.
This is what my imagination
has done with the tools that Homer provides. Your imagination will see the
details in a different way. This is what great literature does. It provides the
mind with visions that can be elaborated, refined, rehearsed, retold, and
re-imagined again and again. This is a private enterprise, a dialogue between
you and the source..
But a third party has entered this dialogue and our imaginations are under
attack. Movie producers and TV writers tell you that they know, and you don't,
what Achilles looked like, how Captain Ahab braced himself against the mast as
the Pequod plunged to its doom, how Napoleon's marshals clustered around him as
they surveyed the plain of Borodino. They have coopted your imagination. .
This may not be serious for adults but it is deadly serious for children. When
children get together one is certain to say, "Let's pretend." Left to
themselves, they can use almost any collection of objects to create a world of
the imagination. Now, they are more likely to sit in front of a TV screen and
let the writers and producers set the scene. Their imaginations have been
coopted.
The Chicago Literary Club stands firm in its defense of literature and the
world of the imagination. During the next millennium the world will change but
this club will continue to meet each Monday. A member will read a paper that
has been carefully and lovingly prepared. Our interests and imagination will be
stirred, and we will gather for conversation and discussion. .
As the Club moves into the new millennium it must avoid the danger that besets
all venerable institutions - the tendency to become excessively conservative,
hidebound, and set into long-established patterns of thinking and operation. I
have a few suggestions to counter this trend. They are my personal wishes and
will need to be debated and thought out by the membership. It is important that
this debate start and be continued. Here are my suggestions:
We should consider doing more special events similar to the joint programs that
we have been doing with the Fortnightly Club. One such possibility would be a
program with the Cliff Dwellers. We share some of the interests of that club
and their broader contact with the arts would help expand our own vision.
Along that same line we should consider broadening our programs. Literature has
never existed alone but in the context of the other arts. During my term as
President I made a start by introducing a musical interlude in connection with
the reading of the regular paper. I believe that more efforts of this kind
should be made.
I believe that many of the papers that are produced by our members merit
publication to a wider audience. I suggest that we explore opportunities for
publication in media such as the Chicago Tribune or Chicago Magazine.
We should make a determined effort to attract younger members. It is not true
that young people are uniformly uninterested in literature and the arts.
I think we should encourage more papers dealing with current problems rather
than biography and reminiscence. The problems discussed in this paper could
well be the inspiration for a number of interesting papers.
We should seek more members from the Literature and Humanities departments of
the major universities. In a club devoted to literature it is surprising that
these professionals in the field make up such a small proportion of our
membership.
The Chicago Literary Club is a jewel in the cultural life of the city. We move
forward with confidence into the new millennium, and I feel honored to
participate in this great adventure.
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